Is the CPI about to show a big increase?

Going against the grain, John Crudele at the New York Post foresees an unexpected jump in the Consumer Price Index in coming months (link):

The Federal Reserve has another problem — it just doesn’t know it yet.

The Fed didn’t make any change to the interest rates it controls at the policy-making Open Market Committee meeting yesterday and said “inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.”

Well, maybe not for long — at least as far as the government’s statistics are concerned.

Is he right? I don’t know, but I do know that most people (especially bond traders) seem awfully complacent about inflation these days.  It would be interesting to see how the markets react to a larger-than-expected increase in CPI.

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